2020: Emerging markets recover, and China has more advantages.

In 2020, under the pressure of low interest rates and asset shortage in developed economies, international capital will enter emerging markets to seek high returns, thus enhancing its imagination of bottoming out in emerging markets.
In the past year, due to geopolitical uncertainty, intensified global trade friction, poor global economic growth and structural problems, the economic growth rate of emerging economies fell to the lowest point since 2009.
However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), emerging markets and frontier markets account for about 59% of global GDP, and by 2024, this proportion is expected to rise to 63.3%. Emerging markets still have a lot of room for growth.
Ian Golding, former vice president of the World Bank, also said that the growth of emerging markets has always been the key to supporting the global economy. Looking forward to 2020, what are the prospects of emerging markets? Which emerging economies will perform better? Which assets will benefit from this? In this regard, the reporter of International Finance News interviewed experts from many financial institutions.
Recovery comes with risks.
In order to boost the economy, central banks in emerging economies have generally adopted interest rate cuts in 2019. The Bank of India has cut interest rates five times since 2019, reducing the interest rate to 5.15%. The Russian central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to 6.25% five times during the year.
In the latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF said that the economic growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to pick up, rising from 3.9% in 2019 to 4.6% in 2020.
"With the improvement of the global trade environment in the fourth quarter of 2019, the new progress in Britain’s Brexit, the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the possibility of relative income during the US election in 2020, this has given the global market a rare time window." Liu Min, China market analyst of FXTM Futuo, told the reporter of International Finance News that because the Federal Reserve hinted that the threshold for raising interest rates in the future is high, other developed economies are mainly adopting loose monetary policies at present. With abundant funds and temporarily reduced uncertainty, the profit-seeking instinct of funds will appear, which will probably usher in some opportunities for emerging economies with relatively rapid GDP growth in 2020.
Zhao Yaoting, global market strategist for Jing Shun Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), said that emerging markets in Asia are expected to achieve about 6.2% economic growth in 2020, led by Indonesian and Vietnamese performances. These two countries benefited from the supply chain disruption caused by the trade war.
Teera Chanpongsang, Fidelity International Fund Manager, told the reporter of International Finance News that it is expected that the Indian and Indonesian governments will continue to promote domestic reforms, which will promote the long-term economic growth in Asia. Asian central banks will continue to maintain growth through fiscal incentives and monetary easing. In addition, China will continue to lead the development of Asia, mainly in e-commerce consumption and consumption upgrading.
Although many institutions are optimistic about the recovery of emerging markets at present, Cheng Shi, chief economist and managing director of ICBC International, said in an interview with the reporter of International Finance News that in 2020, emerging markets will still be in the long process of crossing the historical turning point, and the growth rate is expected to continue to fall near the low level of the ten-year cycle, so it is difficult to see a sustained and strong growth rebound on the whole. Looking forward to 2020, there are three historical turning points on the road of recovery in emerging markets: "First, the main engine has entered a weak period. While China’s economy insists on "slowing down and improving quality", the Indian economy still lacks the steady power to take over, and the weakness of "BRICS" will curb the rebound of emerging markets; Second, the main mode hit the ceiling. As the debt cycle enters the second half, the debt-driven growth that emerging markets rely on is unsustainable, while the narrow policy space and rising populist risks are increasing the threat of debt deflation. Third, the old dividend has become a new weakness. As an external pillar of emerging markets, economic globalization is easy to retreat and difficult to advance, and emerging markets will face multiple risk shocks. "
Huang Jun, a Chinese analyst at Jiasheng, warned, "In 2019, the slowdown of economic growth in emerging economies made domestic contradictions prominent, and mass activities appeared in many countries around the world to varying degrees. Such as India, Iran, Brazil and Venezuela. If the economic growth rate still slows down in 2020, we should pay attention to the possibility of group activities in many emerging economies, which will further drag down economic growth. "
In addition, Huang Jun told the reporter of International Finance News that the main problem of the current economy is that in this economic cycle, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is greater than that of monetary policy, and making a fuss about the demand side can better hit the point of the current economic weakness. At this stage, although all emerging economies hope to revive their economies, which emerging economy is easier to introduce fiscal policy in practice will have more advantages.
Beat developed markets
At present, most institutions in the industry are optimistic about emerging markets in 2020, and think that the present is the most worthwhile opportunity to enter the market. CICC said that after continuously underperforming developed markets in 2018 -2019, due to the gradual recovery of the global growth cycle and the possible depreciation of the US dollar, investment in emerging markets is expected to outperform developed markets in 2020.
UBS said that in view of the falling interest rate of the US dollar, emerging markets are expected to attract capital inflows in 2020, and investors’ pursuit of income may benefit some emerging market currencies. Investors will favor the currencies of countries with economic growth, investment expansion, productivity improvement and fiscal stimulus policies.
Goldman Sachs also said that emerging markets will achieve positive returns in 2020, on the grounds that sustained monetary easing, low oil prices and a better growth environment in the United States and the euro zone in the coming year will accelerate the economic growth of emerging markets.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes that in Asia, with the recovery of international trade, the currencies of emerging market economies in Southeast Asia are expected to continue to strengthen.
Teera Chanpongsang told the reporter of International Finance that he is more optimistic about stock assets in emerging markets. He said, "We prefer those companies that benefit from the steady growth of e-commerce consumption, the rise of the middle class and the upgrading of consumption, and at the same time value the experience of enterprise management teams and prefer those that can benefit from structural growth."
Liu Min said that emerging economies with relatively free interest rates, active fiscal policies and trade surpluses are worthy of attention. Among them, emerging Asian countries and their high growth and trade surplus have become a more prominent category. There are better opportunities in Latin America, and opportunities in Latin America may not be as common as those in East Asia. In 2019, Thailand became one of the few emerging countries where its currency greatly appreciated against the US dollar. With the improvement of the global trade environment, we can continue to pay attention to this country in 2020. In addition, Viet Nam also has great advantages in undertaking China’s industrial transfer. China’s economy is huge, and the opportunities will increase relatively. In addition, the financial opening has a good attraction for foreign investment.
Huang Jun believes that the investment theme in 2020 is hedging, followed by the pursuit of relatively high returns. "In the economic downturn, emerging economies need to maintain political and economic stability first. If there is domestic instability, there will be capital outflow. Because most developing countries have higher bond yields than developed countries such as Europe and America, they have a comparative advantage in yield, and investors will favor bonds. On the other hand, it is high-quality assets, and the important indicators for measuring high-quality assets are safety, liquidity and yield. "
Optimistic about the China market
Most analysts said in interviews that among all emerging market countries, they are more optimistic about the China market. Huang Jun said that there are three aspects to be optimistic about China: first, the domestic situation is stable; Secondly, compared with the major economies in the world, China’s debt accounts for a small proportion of GDP, and China has the ability to introduce fiscal policies; In addition, the national policy leads to new economic growth points, and China’s efforts in the fields of 5G and artificial intelligence are aimed at actively creating new social demands and welcoming the new economic cycle more quickly. These fields are worth looking forward to.
Cheng Shi said that in 2020, under the pressure of low interest rates and asset shortage in developed economies, international capital will be forced to seek high returns from emerging markets, thus enhancing its imagination of bottoming out in emerging markets. However, once this expectation seriously deviates from the weak growth of emerging markets, the iron facts will eventually shatter the golden fantasy. Fast forward and fast out of capital will touch the debt risk and exchange rate risk, and the roles of "honey" and "arsenic" will switch more frequently. "Under the threat of expected reversal,’ steady low growth’ is more valuable than’ fragile high growth’. From the perspectives of debt risk, exchange rate risk and populist risk, compared with other emerging markets such as India, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin China,’s economy of’ slowing down and improving quality’ still has high stability, which is expected to gain a comparative advantage. ".
Zhao Yaoting told the reporter of International Finance News that as China’s economy continues to transform into a consumption-oriented and service-oriented economy, its economic fundamentals remain sound. China’s real estate market will remain active, and it is possible to achieve steady investment growth, which will benefit China’s economy. On January 1st, the People’s Bank of China announced that it would reduce the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points, reflecting that the People’s Bank of China will continue to implement loose monetary policy to support the economy. In addition, China and the United States have reached an agreement on the text of the first stage economic and trade agreement, which will further reduce the uncertainty of the market and boost the market atmosphere. "We expect that, in view of the positive reaction of investors to the two catalysts of RRR cut and the signing of the first-stage trade agreement, the China stock market will usher in a wave of upward momentum in the short term".
Reporting/feedback

Tang Kun: From participation to leading "youth is the master" to light up healthy China

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Tang Kun (Photo courtesy of the interviewee)

CCTV News:"Young people have the right to sexual and reproductive health." As soon as he saw Tang Kun, he talked to reporters about the topic of "youth health education" without any guidance from reporters.

As a post-80s young teacher, Tang Kun has been paying attention to the field of adolescent sexual and reproductive health for 15 years. In his words, this field has changed his life track.

The rights of young people

In 1994, the Programme of Action was released at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) held in Cairo, in which it was mentioned: "The social action for adolescents’ reproductive health needs should be to provide information to help them grow up and make responsible decisions. In particular, teenagers should be provided with information and services that can help them understand their own sexual characteristics … …”

Since the ICPD 24 years ago, great progress has been made in reproductive health and rights on a global scale. At present, China’s population and family planning work has shifted from population control to total regulation, quality improvement and structural optimization, and has entered a new era of "encouraging birth according to policies and promoting long-term balanced population development". People get more information about their reproductive rights and choices, and more ability to defend their rights, including teenagers.

"Youth health education, young people are more sharing and participating, and even leading." Tang Kun said that this is a question about choice and rights, and this youth cause is very important. At present, the number of induced abortions in China is about 9 million every year, and the trend of younger induced abortions is becoming more and more serious. Tang Kun said: "Youth health education focuses on teenagers’ comprehensive sexual and reproductive health, from the confusion of adolescence to the confusion of interpersonal communication, from the decision of sexual behavior to how to prevent the spread of AIDS … …”

Teenagers are the subjects of providing health services, not just the objects. "Health services should aim at satisfying clients, not just looking at statistics. It needs to meet the needs of the group to know, not mandatory, and the communication effect is very important. " Tang Kun said that this is his deepest experience in doing youth health education in recent years.

China youth network with Youth Participation

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Tang Kun actively participates in disease prevention and popular science work (Photo courtesy of the interviewee)

On World AIDS Day in 2002, Tang Kun, a sophomore and president of the Student Union of Peking University Basic Medical College, led a volunteer team to ditan hospital to publicize how to prevent and treat AIDS. "At that time, many people came to watch. A young man pushed a bicycle to come over and asked what he was doing outside the crowd. When he heard that it was propaganda to prevent AIDS, he immediately pushed the bicycle and ran away." Tang Kun said that he still remembers the left figure. "The core of young people’s right to sexual and reproductive health is not only how to enjoy it, but more importantly, how to exercise it."

In mid-2004, a national youth organization — — China youth network was founded under the initiative and organization of China Family Planning Association (CFPA). Tang Kun has become one of the most active members of this youth organization. "Youth participation" is to let young people participate in his own sexual and reproductive health work, projects and practices.

"I was confused at first. As a young man, how can I effectively participate in it?" Tang Kun said that the World AIDS Conference held in Thailand in 2004 made him suddenly enlightened. It was the first large-scale international conference he attended on behalf of the youth network. At that meeting, he saw the features of young people from all over the world, who stood at the forefront of advocating young people’s sexual and reproductive health rights and preventing AIDS. "I am very excited, and my horizons are broadened at once. By looking at booths and posters in different countries and watching the activities of young people in different countries, we can also do a lot of things to speak on behalf of young people in China! "

After returning, Tang Kun joined the students in the youth network to go to school and enter the community to spread the prevention, scientific research and treatment of AIDS and provide health services for young people. "Sex education is not a physical health class. Comprehensive sex and reproductive health education is to tell young people to keep a positive outlook on life, face the relationship between the sexes correctly and how to overcome peer pressure. Let them also participate in designing these contents. " Through continuous efforts and attempts, china youth network has not only launched a series of various and effective youth health intervention projects in China, but also shared China’s experience with young people in other countries. Since then, the World AIDS Conference has become a position for china youth network to show the confidence and determination of young people in China to prevent AIDS. Up to now, setting up a booth for young people in China at the World AIDS Conference has become a fixed project of the youth network. At every conference, you can see the beautiful elegance of young people in China who advocate AIDS prevention.

Collect "evidence" of youth health education

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Tang Kun Data Map (Photo courtesy of the interviewee)

In 2007, Tang Kun gave up his previous choice — — Peking University’s eight-year doctor of basic medicine. After getting my undergraduate degree, I applied for the global health direction of Harvard University. "Being a doctor was my dream before college, and participating in china youth network changed my later study track and even my life track." After studying for a master’s degree in population and international health at Harvard, Tang Kun went to Oxford to study for a doctorate in epidemiology.

"As a public health practitioner, when designing a project (service), if there is no participation of the client, that is, young people, you don’t know what his needs are? On the one hand, this is the embodiment of rights. On the other hand, it is possible to provide them with better services by listening to the voices of young people and treating them as partners. "

In a class on health system at Harvard, the lecturer was the former health minister of Mexico. He told the young students in the audience that his dream from his youth was to make a developing country like Mexico enjoy health services for all. This deeply touched Tang Kun. His study and research abroad made him more systematically realize the integration of research methods and practice. And his ultimate goal is to return to the motherland and serve the young people in China.

"The research and dissemination of adolescent sexual and reproductive health is more based on experience and lacks evidence." After returning to China after graduating from Ph.D., Tang Kun and the China Family Planning Association jointly launched the Survey on Sexual and Reproductive Health of China University. Through the method of online questionnaire survey, 18,000 college students aged 18-25 registered in Chinese mainland universities were surveyed, covering more than 130 universities in China. Through data analysis, the best practice working mode of youth health is summarized, which provides evidence-based research evidence for youth health education.

In mid-October 2018, Tang Kun was hired as a member of the Expert Advisory Committee on Child Health Indicators of the World Health Organization. In the next two years, together with 11 members from other countries, he will set monitoring indicators for global child health and provide evidence support and policy suggestions for the global realization of sustainable development goals related to child health.

Choice is changing individuals, families, countries and the whole world, and it will continue to change all this. Tang Kun said that his every choice seems to be inseparable from the youth group, and he hopes to become an epidemiologist in this field. (Text/Zhang Ke Yi Respondent/Tang Kun Tsinghua University Young Teacher)

Processing flow of public letters and visits reported by the Supervision Department of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection

    Recently, the website of the Ministry of Supervision published for the first time the internal organization chart and related working procedures of the Ministry of Supervision of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. On the official website of the Ministry of Supervision, click on the "Organization Profile" column, and you can see the block diagram of 27 institutions under the Supervision Department of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, as well as the working procedures of the discipline inspection and supervision organs in handling letters and visits, investigating cases, and handling political disciplinary appeals.


    Although the publicity was slightly "low-key", it still attracted widespread attention.


    Professor Ma Huaide, vice-president of China University of Political Science and Law, said in an interview with China Youth Daily that although the Commission for Discipline Inspection and the supervisory organs are co-located, one is in the party and the other is in the government sequence, and the particularity of the institutions determines the complexity of the nature of information and the scope of disclosure.


    "From the disclosure of government information to the disclosure of party committees, and then to the disclosure of administrative actions required by the Supreme Leader General Secretary, the depth and latitude of disclosure are expanding." Ma Huaide believes that this move by the Ministry of Supervision will promote other party affairs departments to disclose more information and increase the transparency of their duties.


    Openness in government affairs benefits both people and themselves.


    In 2008, the Regulations on the Openness of Government Information was implemented, and the competent departments and supervisory organs of government information disclosure were responsible for supervising and inspecting the implementation of government information disclosure by administrative organs.


    In September 2012, Peking University Public Participation Research and Support Center (hereinafter referred to as Peking University Public Participation Center) released the Report on Administrative Transparency in China (2011-2012). Forty-two institutions under the State Council were observed and evaluated from five aspects: organizational support, institutional support, voluntary disclosure, disclosure upon application, supervision and relief, and the lowest score was the Ministry of Supervision.


    "Compared with other ministries, the Ministry of Supervision is quite special." Ma Huaide said that it is co-located with CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, but the party information is different from the government information, and the scope of disclosure is also different, which objectively restricts the transparency of the Ministry of Supervision.


    On January 22, 2013, the General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out at the second plenary session of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection that it is necessary to improve the open system of administrative actions and ensure that leading cadres do not abuse their power and power for personal gain.


    Ma Huaide believes that the connotation and extension of "openness of administrative actions" are broader. Under this requirement, it is foreseeable that the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Ministry of Supervision will disclose more information in the next step.


    Lang Peijuan, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, believes that the open work process of the Ministry of Supervision reflects the change of its own concept. On the one hand, it is conducive to the people to understand the basis for the authorities to exercise their power and the specific ways, methods and procedures for exercising public power; On the other hand, it is also convenient for public supervision.


    "In the past, the case-handling organs had concerns, fearing that after the internal workflow was made public, it would hinder the handling of cases." Lang Peijuan said that in fact, this will not only affect the investigation, but also promote the work to a greater extent.


    "Although it is a supervisory organ, it is also a public authority itself, so it also needs to be supervised." Lang Peijuan said that the supervision of official behavior should be open, and the openness of procedures is more conducive to broader and universal supervision.


    Are there many 27 internal institutions?


    The public organization chart of the website of the Ministry of Supervision shows that the Ministry of Supervision of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection has eight discipline inspection and supervision rooms from the first to the eighth, and 19 internal institutions, including corruption prevention room, party style and clean government building room, petition room, case supervision and management room and case trial room.


    In this regard, Lang Peijuan said that to judge whether an institution is set up reasonably, we must first measure it from the perspective of its functions: "Set up an institution according to the functions entrusted by law. The criterion for our judgment is what they are doing now, listing their powers, and then judging whether these functions really need so many institutions to do. "


    "The Ministry of Supervision is co-located with CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, and there are overlapping supervision objects. There is a lot of cooperation and interaction in the work, and it is necessary to cooperate." Lang Peijuan said that what we see are two brands, which are actually a large department, so we need more institutional settings.


    In addition, the organization establishment is also a major factor to judge whether the organization establishment is reasonable. Lang Peijuan believes that in practice, as long as it does not exceed the number of personnel assigned by the Central Organizing Committee, it is allowed to set up as many institutions as possible under the premise of performing legal duties.


    Of course, the institutional setup is not static.


    "How to integrate internal institutions, how to interact between institutions, how to better share information and make decisions and consultations, all of which need to be continuously explored and gradually adjusted in operation." Lang Peijuan said.


    There is no time limit for handling complaints and reports.


    The Ministry of Supervision has also announced the workflow for handling letters and visits, which is concerned by the public, including four steps: preliminary preparation, registration and acceptance, handling, and reply and feedback. Letters and visits cases that need to be identified urgently, easy to check and settle, and retaliate against informants can be directly investigated and dealt with.


    After the complaint reporting is completed, the discipline inspection and supervision organ that undertakes it should give feedback to the relevant real-name informants in accordance with the regulations, but the time for feedback is not limited.


    "Any program has no time limit, can’t it be dragged on indefinitely?" Netizens are worried about "remembering good words".


    Lin Zhe, a professor at the Central Party School, believes that it is actually more "scientific" not to specify the time. This is due to the consideration of the particularity of the petition work: "The petition work is big and small, some time is longer, and some time is shorter. If you can’t do it, you won’t promise first."


    Ma Huaide also agreed with this. "The content of letters and visits to the public is broad and complicated, and there are no clear and specific procedural provisions in the law at present." He said that from the practical point of view, some people report corruption of an official, and some people report violations of a large project. The difficulty of investigation is different and the time is not good to generalize.


    Lang Peijuan suggested that the law can stipulate different processing times according to the specific circumstances of clues. Simple, limited time is shorter. Complex cases, repeated, involving a particularly large number of departments, the restrictions can be relaxed.


    Lang Peijuan believes that in the workflow, we should not only consider the issue of time, but also grasp the issue of proper and fair procedures: "First, the openness of the procedures, second, the participation and defense of the parties, and finally, the effectiveness of the procedures. The procedures themselves must be binding."


    This move by the Ministry of Supervision reflects the openness of the procedures.


    "The future disclosure can be more detailed, and every step can be made public. As long as it does not involve state secrets and the legitimate rights and interests of individuals, it should be made public as much as possible, and a mechanism should be provided for the public to track queries." Lang Peijuan said.    


    Beijing, March 14th

Our reporter Li Li Intern Zhang Hui Source: China Youth Daily

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