BEIJING, Beijing, December 12 (Reporter Li Jinlei) The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. The meeting comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, profoundly analyzed the current economic situation, and systematically deployed the economic work in 2024, including many new formulations, which conveyed important signals.
Adhering to high-quality development must be the last word in the new era.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era, implement the new development concept completely, accurately and comprehensively, and promote the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity in the economy.
From the previous "development is the last word" to "we must adhere to high-quality development as the last word in the new era", this is a kind of advancing with the times.
Sheng Lei, deputy director of the Investment Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, told Zhongxin Finance that the meeting based on the new era, new journey and new requirements, and based on the regular understanding of doing a good job in economic work, put forward that "adhering to high-quality development must be the last word in the new era", which not only pointed out the direction for economic work next year, but also responded to Report to the 20th CPC National Congress’s "high-quality development is the primary task of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way" and "development is the top priority of the party in governing and rejuvenating the country". It is also a historical advancement of adhering to high-quality development since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which reflects the consistency and continuity of strategy, and reflects the adaptability of policies to environmental changes, creating more development space around high-quality requirements, and making efforts to release more endogenous kinetic energy.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of Tsinghua University China Development Planning and Research Institute, told Zhongxin Finance that the development of the new era must focus on high-quality development, and only high-quality development can drive the realization of modern industrial system, coordinated development of urban and rural areas and high-quality people’s livelihood.
Zhu Keli, executive director of China Information Association and founding president of the National Research Institute of New Economics, told China New Finance that in the new era, high-quality development has become the core theme of China’s economic development. High-quality development emphasizes economic quality and efficiency, rather than just speed and scale.
We must regard the promotion of Chinese modernization as the greatest politics.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to take promoting Chinese modernization as the greatest politics, unite the overwhelming majority of the people under the unified leadership of the Party, focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, and turn the grand blueprint of Chinese modernization into a beautiful reality step by step.
"This actually clarifies the biggest work in all aspects of the next step ‘ Baton ’ 。” Dong Yu believes that "the biggest politics" means that all parties should shift their focus to promoting Chinese modernization.
Dong Yu said that when the meeting put forward requirements for cadres, it particularly emphasized that "we should seize all favorable opportunities, make use of all favorable conditions, work hard when we are sure, and do more if we can". In fact, it put forward a certainty for work in various fields through "maximum politics". No matter how the environment changes, we must do a good job in high-quality development and economic construction, and respond to the uncertainty of situation changes with the certainty of our own work.
"Chinese-style modernization is the only correct way to build a strong country and rejuvenate the nation". Sheng Lei believes that this meeting put forward that "promoting Chinese-style modernization must be the greatest politics". First of all, it reiterated the significance of this road of Chinese-style modernization "going smoothly and steadily", and then it also required us to return to the goal and initial intention of Chinese-style modernization in the process of "wavy development and tortuous progress" of the economy, relying on the people closely and respecting their creative spirit.
Luo Zhiheng, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Yuekai Securities, told Zhongxin Finance that the meeting clearly stated that we should focus on the central task of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development. The problems and challenges existing on the road of development must be solved in development. A certain economic growth rate and continuously improved economic quality are the key to resolving debt, real estate and financial risks.
Next year, we should persist in striving for progress in stability, promote stability through progress, and establish before breaking.
The meeting demanded that next year, we should adhere to the policy of striving for progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, first establishing and then breaking, and more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth and employment. We should be proactive in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving quality and increasing efficiency, and constantly consolidate the foundation of stability and improvement.
On the basis of the requirement of striving for progress in stability, this meeting further increased the new requirement of "promoting stability through progress, first establishing and then breaking".
The head of the National Economic Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission pointed out to the media that the key is to grasp the dialectical relationship contained in it. Promote "progress" on the basis of "stability" and achieve "stability" through "progress" in economic structure, development quality and major reforms. It is also necessary to grasp the order of "establishing" and "breaking", otherwise it will affect the overall situation of economic development, which is also an important methodology of economic work.
Sheng Lei believes that the consistent formulation of "striving for progress while maintaining stability", together with "promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking", further embodies the confidence and determination of the central government to promote development through steady growth, and emphasizes the working ideas and implementation paths for solving difficulties in development and resolving risks in growth.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, believes that the purpose of the meeting is to make a good connection and switch between the old and new models, and avoid the blind pursuit of quick success or one-size-fits-all approach. The fields involving "establishment" and "breaking" include not only the energy structure, but also the old and new kinetic energy of the economy and the real estate development model. It is expected that the original model will run for some time before the new mechanism is formally formed.
Incorporate non-economic policies into the consistency evaluation of macro-policy orientation
The meeting demanded that the consistency of macro-policy orientation should be strengthened. Strengthen the coordination of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, scientific and technological, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the consistency assessment of macro-policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure the same direction and form a joint force. Strengthening economic propaganda and public opinion guidance, sing the chinese’s theory of economic brightness.
Sheng Lei believes that enhancing the consistency of macro-policy orientation is to push all departments to further strengthen policy coordination and work coordination, closely cooperate, exert their efforts in the same direction, form a joint force, further strengthen the consistency evaluation of macro-policy orientation in specific work, pay more attention to the priorities of policy arrangements, prevent the emergence of "fallacy of composition" problems, lay a good combination of policies, and maintain a stable and predictable macro-policy environment.
In Zhu Keli’s view, non-economic policies are playing an increasingly important role in economic development, helping to improve people’s living standards and promote social harmony and stability. When formulating macro policies, these non-economic policies should be taken into important consideration to ensure the consistency and coordination of macro policies. This requires in-depth research and evaluation of non-economic policies, so as to ensure the coordination between them and economic policies, and avoid the "fallacy of composition" or "decomposition fallacy" at the policy level to the greatest extent.
Develop new quality productive forces
The meeting pointed out that scientific and technological innovation should lead the construction of modern industrial system. It is necessary to promote industrial innovation with scientific and technological innovation, especially to promote new industries, new models, new kinetic energy and develop new quality productivity with subversive technologies and cutting-edge technologies.
"New quality productivity" is one of the top ten buzzwords in 2023. From the outside world, it is a kind of productivity in which scientific and technological innovation plays a leading role, and it is a productivity that has got rid of the traditional growth path and meets the requirements of high-quality development. The data shows that the total export of the "new three" products represented by electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells in China exceeded 800 billion yuan, up more than 40% year-on-year.
Wen Bin believes that focusing on the leading role of scientific and technological innovation in new growth engines such as new generation information technology, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment and environmental protection, the conference has pointed out the development path for new qualitative productivity such as strategic emerging industries and high-tech industries.
Zhu Keli believes that scientific and technological innovation is the key driving force for accelerating the formation of new quality productive forces and promoting high-quality economic development. By strengthening scientific and technological innovation, industrial innovation and the development of new quality productivity can be promoted. This requires strengthening basic research and applied research to promote the transformation and industrialization of scientific and technological achievements. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, promote innovation, entrepreneurship and personnel training, and continuously inject new kinetic energy and vitality into the high-quality economic development.
It is necessary to stimulate potential consumption and expand effective investment.
The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand effective investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other.
Wen Bin said that the meeting will link consumption and investment, which means that the policy will no longer stimulate consumption and investment in isolation, but take a long-term view, give consideration to improving the efficiency of the market economy, strive to achieve a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of investment and consumption, pursue the policy effect of "1+1>2", and improve the sustainability of domestic demand growth.
Zhu Keli believes that consumption and investment are two important supports for economic development. In order to stimulate potential consumption and expand effective investment, it is necessary to jointly promote supply-side structural reform and demand-side management. (End)